A fairly prodigious ice storm swept in yesterday morning, pretty much shutting things down from Joplin to Rolla here in Missouri. I've been stuck here at home, manning my PC and most certainly not taking advantage of the down time by running around in World of Warcraft all day.
There are a trio of east coast primaries going on today, all centered on DC: Virginia, Maryland and the District itself. Conventional wisdom would indicate that establishment candidate Hillary! Clinton would be safely ahead of her opponent Barrack Obama here, but early polling indicates that may not be the case.
Of course, how much can we trust the polls?
Not much, says Susan Estrich, who wrote this weekend about the so-called "Bradley Effect" and Obama. For those that haven't heard the term before, the Bradley Effect refers to the presumed shoe-in election of former LA Mayor Tom Bradley to the Governor's Office in California. Every major bit of polling indicated that Bradley, who is black, was going to win. Only people didn't vote the way they were polled and Bradley's opponent, George Deukmejian, scraped by with a narrow win.
So is the same thing happening now? Are Democratic voters telling pollsters they're voting Obama, but secretly declining to do so because he's black? Or are they just telling pollsters what they want to hear, since they know how the script plays and they don't want to be hectored by the press and Hollywood and Oprah?
Have we reached the point in the political narrative where the only reason NOT to vote for Obama is closet racism?
Honestly, I don't feel too sorry for the Democrat's current primary problems. Identity politics has been a cornerstone of their operation for decades now, and it always worked for them in the past because their disparate factions were united against The Man. It's only now that they're shocked that the Party seems to be falling out along racial and gender lines? Sheesh.
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